Saturday 15 February 2020

Gazing at a Crystall ball or Predictive Business Analytics ?



There is certain news published about a business house / tech startup / retail business , and the social media ( LinkedIn) , news papers and business mags are flooded with business analysts and crystal ball gazers making predictions ...

  • Its a BUBBLE ...
  • Let the COMPETITION catch up...
  • Cant be SUSTAINED...
  • Its FAKE NEWS ...etc etc 
There is very little technical analysis based on past variables / parameters , to be found in the public domain. 

certain individuals with backgrounds of a Chartered Accountant / Business Analyst - may try to spend a few hours - read the Balance Sheets , the Assets statements and make some kind of vague predictions about the future .

My Question --- Why doesnt anyone make a Bold and Authoritative statement saying - YES a Quarter from now this very Org will perform like this ( if a publicly traded org. ) then the STOCK PRICE would be within this range ( thin range ) 

My Answer --- ( Trying to answer my own question ) 
  1. Highly knowledgeable and niche-skilled resources required. 
  2. Such resources - when they shall predict the ( thin range ) point value , predictions , will not publish them publicly for everyone's benefit.
  3. A proper and definitive - SWOT analysis -  Not possible - Not enough information available publicly.
  4. Waayyy too many Variables .
  5. Data Shift - the variables that impact the Org's success / success of the market / domain , the org. operates in - itself may change.
  6. Competition strengthens  its own weak points after reading / buying analysts reports about - target org , thus freely published analysis never available.

Business Idea --- Why not use ML and Rule Based coding and automate / semi-automate this prediction process ? 

My Lament ---  Why dont i do this inplace of publishing lame blog posts ? Well Firstly - Forgotten most of the Corporate Finance i had studied back in 2009 - 2010 . Also havent had time to revise all the Statistics and Business Analytics i studied back in 2013 . Also not enough funding ? All the core Finance people i know of are busy hedging their own personal risk :)

Noob / Non Financial Background readers can read further here ---- 

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/why-do-companies-care-about-their-stock-prices/


Linkedin post which again sparked this thought today ... almost Six month back i did start off with pyFinTrader to peruse in this direction will need to get back my focus there soon ...